Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war has sparked division within his Democratic base

 

President Joe Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war has sparked division within his Democratic base, with some comparing it to the Vietnam War protests. However, recent polling suggests that the conflict is not a top priority for most Americans, and it's unlikely to be a decisive issue in the 2024 election.

According to a recent NBC News poll, only 7% of voters said they would vote for or against candidates based on their stance on the war. In contrast, issues like protecting democracy, immigration, and abortion were chosen by between 19% and 28% of voters. A Gallup poll also found that only 2% of Americans listed the Israel-Hamas war as the most important problem facing the nation, ranking it 17th among all answers given.

This is in stark contrast to the Vietnam War, which was a top priority for many Americans in 1968. At the time, over 40% of Americans regularly said that Vietnam was the most important problem, with 45% of those under 35 sharing this view. The current conflict does not have the same level of public attention or concern.

Despite this, Biden's approval ratings have taken a hit among younger voters, who are more likely to disapprove of his handling of the war. However, this decline in support is not solely due to his war response, as Biden's popularity among young voters was already waning before the conflict began.

The election is close, and any drop in Biden's standing against former President Donald Trump could make a difference. However, attempting to satisfy younger voters could risk alienating the rest of the electorate. While some have compared the campus protests to those against South Africa's apartheid government in the 1980s, the polling suggests that the current conflict is more divisive.

In 1985, a majority of Americans sympathized with Black South Africans over the White-led government, with 64% expressing support for the Black population. In contrast, more Americans currently sympathize with Israelis than Palestinians, with a February Gallup poll showing a 51% to 27% margin. Among those under 35, the divide is more equal, with 50% sympathizing with Palestinians and 31% with Israelis.

This leaves Biden in a difficult position, as taking stances seen as more favorable to Palestinians could lose him voters who sympathize with Israelis, while staying the course could continue to bleed support among younger voters. The bottom line is that the 2024 election will be challenging for Biden to win, and the Israel-Hamas war is just one of many complex issues he faces.