If Russia were to emerge victorious in Ukraine it could threaten global security.

 

If Russia were to emerge victorious in Ukraine, it would likely embolden Putin's expansionist ambitions and pose a significant threat to global security. Here's a possible scenario:

1. Consolidation of power: Putin would likely consolidate his control over Ukraine, imposing a pro-Russian government and crushing any opposition. This would allow him to expand his influence in the region and gain access to Ukraine's strategic resources and infrastructure.
2. Expansion into other former Soviet states: Emboldened by his success in Ukraine, Putin might set his sights on other former Soviet states, such as Moldova, Georgia, or the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania). He could use similar tactics, including propaganda, disinformation, and military coercion, to bring these countries under his control.
3. Increased aggression towards NATO and the West: A victorious Putin would likely become even more confrontational towards NATO and the West, potentially leading to increased military provocations, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns. He might also try to exploit divisions within the EU and NATO, using diplomacy and economic leverage to weaken their unity and resolve.
4. Strengthening of authoritarianism: Putin's success in Ukraine would likely lead to a further crackdown on dissent and opposition within Russia, as he consolidates his power and silences any potential critics. This could result in an even more repressive and authoritarian regime, with severe consequences for human rights and individual freedoms.
5. Increased support for extremist groups: Putin has already been accused of supporting extremist groups, such as separatists in eastern Ukraine and nationalist movements in Europe. A victorious Putin might increase his support for these groups, potentially leading to a rise in extremist activity and terrorism across the globe.
6. Nuclear proliferation: Putin has already demonstrated a willingness to use nuclear weapons as a threat, and a victorious Putin might become even more reckless in his nuclear posturing. This could lead to a destabilization of global nuclear security and an increased risk of nuclear conflict.
7. Economic coercion: Putin could use Russia's energy resources and economic leverage to coerce other countries into submission, potentially leading to a rise in energy prices, trade wars, and economic instability.

As for potential victims of Putin's vindictiveness, several countries and regions could be at risk:

1. Moldova: Moldova has already faced Russian aggression, and a victorious Putin might see it as an easy target for expansion.
2. Georgia: Georgia has long been a thorn in Putin's side, and he might seek to punish it for its pro-Western stance.
3. Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are NATO members and have already faced Russian aggression. A victorious Putin might see them as a threat and try to intimidate or even annex them.
4. Poland: Poland has been a vocal critic of Putin's actions, and he might see it as a potential target for retaliation.
5. Central Asia: Countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan could face Russian aggression or coercion, potentially leading to instability and conflict in the region.
6. Eastern Europe: Countries like Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria might face increased Russian pressure and coercion, potentially leading to a destabilization of the region.

In conclusion, a victorious Putin in Ukraine would pose a significant threat to global security, stability, and human rights. It's crucial for the international community to remain vigilant and united in the face of Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine and other vulnerable countries in their quest for sovereignty and self-determination.