Russia's War in Ukraine: A Losing Battle?

 

Russia's War in Ukraine: A Losing Battle?

As Russia prepares to celebrate Victory Day on May 9, commemorating its defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945, Timothy Snyder, a renowned historian and professor, argues that Russia's current war in Ukraine is a losing battle. Despite the prevailing view that Russia will eventually emerge victorious, Snyder contends that Russia's military might is not invincible and that Ukraine has already proven its resilience.

Snyder points out that the Red Army, which defeated Nazi Germany, was not unbeatable. It lost two of its three most significant foreign wars, and its victory in 1945 was part of a larger coalition effort with decisive American economic support. Moreover, the current Russian army is not the same as the Red Army, and Russia is no longer the Soviet Union.

Today, Russia is fighting a war of aggression against Ukraine, a sovereign state, without the economic support it received during World War II. Snyder asserts that Russia's only chance of winning is to prevent the West from aiding Ukraine, which would allow Ukraine to prevail.

The last six months have shown that when the United States delays aid to Ukraine, Russia gains minor battlefield victories. However, this is not a sustainable strategy for Russia, and its chances of winning are slim.

Snyder also challenges the notion that a Russian defeat would be catastrophic. He argues that Russia has lost wars before, and these defeats have led to reflection, reform, and even the end of imperial ambitions. A defeated Russia could become a post-imperial country, where democracy and the rule of law can flourish.

The consequences of a Russian victory, on the other hand, would be dire. It would risk a larger war in Europe, embolden China to pursue its own territorial ambitions, and undermine international law and democracy.

In conclusion, Snyder's argument is a timely reminder that Russia's military power is not invincible, and Ukraine has already proven its ability to resist. A Russian defeat would not be the end of the world but rather an opportunity for Russia to reform and become a more democratic and law-abiding nation. The West should continue to support Ukraine and reject the notion that Russia's victory is inevitable.