Russia's War in Ukraine: A Losing Battle?

 

Russia's War in Ukraine: A Losing Battle?

As Russia prepares to celebrate Victory Day on May 9, commemorating its defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945, the ongoing war in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder that Russia's military prowess is not invincible. Timothy Snyder, a historian and global affairs expert, argues that Russia can lose this war, and it should, for the sake of the world and its own people.

The notion of an invincible Red Army is a myth, Snyder contends. While the Red Army was formidable, it was also beatable. In its three most significant foreign wars, the Red Army lost two. Moreover, the Russian army of today is not the Red Army, and Russia is not the USSR. Soviet Ukraine was a vital source of resources and soldiers for the Red Army, and Ukrainian soldiers fought alongside the Red Army in World War II.

Today, Russia is fighting a war of aggression against Ukraine, and it lacks the American economic support that the Red Army needed to defeat Nazi Germany. Snyder argues that Russia's only chance of winning is to prevent the West from helping Ukraine, by persuading us that its victory is inevitable. However, the last six months have shown that when the United States delays aid to Ukraine, Russia achieves minor battlefield victories.

Snyder also notes that Russia has a history of losing wars, which has often led to reflection and reform. Defeat in Crimea led to the end of serfdom, while the loss to Japan led to experiments with elections. The Soviet failure in Afghanistan led to Gorbachev's reforms and the end of the Cold War.

The ongoing war in Ukraine is an imperial war, with Russia denying the existence of the Ukrainian state and nation and committing atrocities reminiscent of the worst of European imperialism. Snyder argues that a defeated Russia means not only the end of senseless losses of young life in Ukraine but also Russia's chance to become a post-imperial country where reform is possible, and Russians can be protected by law and cast meaningful votes.

In conclusion, Russia's war in Ukraine is not a foregone conclusion. Ukraine has held its own for over two years, and Russia's military prowess is not invincible. A Russian defeat would not only be a blow to its imperial ambitions but also an opportunity for reform and democratization. As Snyder notes, "Defeat in Ukraine is Russia's historical chance for normality."