The United States has finally taken a bold step in exerting its influence over Israel

 

The United States has finally taken a bold step in exerting its influence over Israel by delaying a shipment of munitions, including 2000lb bombs. This move is a significant warning to Israel, coming after months of ignored advice and warnings from the US government.

The US has been Israel's closest ally, providing $3.8 billion in military aid annually, as well as an additional $14 billion in military support passed by Congress last month. However, despite this support, Israel has chosen to ignore US concerns about civilian protection and humanitarian access in Gaza.

The delayed shipment of bombs is particularly significant, as they are the type that could be used in a proposed military operation against Hamas in Rafah, which the US and other Western countries fear would lead to mass civilian casualties. The US is also reviewing other weapons sales, including equipment that converts free-falling bombs into precision-guided munitions.

This move is not only a warning to Israel but also a demonstration of US influence and leverage. The US government has been gradually stepping up pressure on Israel, advising privately, warning publicly, and stopping vetoing condemnatory resolutions at the United Nations. However, much of this counsel has fallen on deaf ears, leading to the US finally wielding its biggest stick.

The delay in the shipment of munitions is also likely due to domestic US politics. President Biden is facing pressure from Democratic supporters to temper his support for Israel, particularly in an election year. Opinion polls suggest that some Democrats, especially younger people, may be reluctant to vote for Biden in November due to the US role in the war in Gaza.

The US decision to withhold military support comes with risks, as Israel could ignore the warning and continue with its military operations. However, this would be a public demonstration of diminishing US influence in the world. On the other hand, Israel may be loath to risk an historic rift with its biggest ally, upon whom it relies utterly for air defenses.

A big test will come when the US State Department decides whether the Israel Defense Forces are using US weapons to commit human rights abuses. A statement about an inquiry is expected soon. If the US delays arms sales to Israel, pressure will grow on other countries, including the UK, to do the same, contributing to Israel's diplomatic isolation.

In conclusion, the US delay in shipping munitions to Israel is a significant warning and a demonstration of US influence. It is a test of Israel's willingness to listen to its closest ally and a demonstration of US commitment to protecting civilians and promoting humanitarian access in Gaza. The outcome will have significant implications for US-Israel relations and the wider Middle East peace process.