Ukraine is weakening Russia's war machine by launching drone strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting oil refineries, military facilities, and drone assembly plants. These strikes have damaged 19 military facilities and at least 29 factories, oil refineries, and storage centers in Russia since January. The frequency and number of drones used are increasing, with Ukraine producing more UAVs and receiving donations from allies.
The damage to Russian refineries has resulted in a 10% loss of capacity, and the attack on the Morozovsk military airfield destroyed at least 6 aircraft, including Su-27 and Su-34M bombers. Russia's size, once a strategic advantage, is now a disadvantage as Ukraine develops drones that can strike deeper into Russian territory. The Kremlin faces a dilemma: protect military formations in occupied Ukraine or protect its own infrastructure in Russia.
Stretching Russian air defense systems leaves ground targets exposed and Russian aircraft defenseless. Ukraine has destroyed several Russian aircraft, including a Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber carrying X-22 cruise missiles. The West's military assistance to Ukraine, including ATACMS tactical missiles, has enabled these strikes.
Crimea has become a special target, with at least 6 military targets hit since the start of 2024. The Ukrainian armed forces' decision to target this area systematically is part of the de-occupation of southern Ukraine and Crimea. By striking deep into Russia, Ukraine is over-stretching Russian air defense capabilities and clearing the battlefield for the use of Western F-16s.
Ukraine is fighting for a window of opportunity before Russia can increase protection with electronic warfare and form mobile fire groups to defend against drone attacks. This window must be seized, and it is a signal to Ukraine's partners to speed up military assistance to give Ukraine an advantage.
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