US and Saudi Arabia Finalizing Landmark Deal

 

US and Saudi Arabia Finalizing Landmark Deal Tying Together Futures of Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Gaza

The United States and Saudi Arabia are close to finalizing a comprehensive deal that would strengthen their bilateral trade and defense ties, but only if Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations. The deal, described as a "mega-deal," has three components: a package of agreements between the US and Saudi Arabia, normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and a pathway to a Palestinian state.

According to US officials, all three components are linked, and none will move forward without the others. The deal would solidify the seven-decade security alliance between Saudi Arabia and the US, and tie them closer together as US adversaries like Iran, Russia, and China seek to expand their influence in the Middle East.

The normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel would be a significant development, as Saudi Arabia is home to Islam's holiest sites. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long sought relations with Saudi Arabia, and the move could have a domino effect across the wider Muslim world.

However, the deal faces obstacles, including Israel's acceptance of a pathway to a Palestinian state, which Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected. The subsequent Israeli assault on Gaza, which has left the enclave in ruins and killed over 34,000 Palestinians, may have changed the parameters of the deal for Saudi Arabia.

Analysts say that Saudi Arabia may attempt to close the bilateral deal without the normalization component, but this approach would face significant hurdles. A defense treaty would require 67 votes in the Senate to become binding, and without normalization, there would be few votes for a mutual defense agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia.

Experts suggest that the Biden administration could bypass Congress by modeling the agreement around another security agreement signed with Bahrain last year. However, there has been no indication that the administration would opt for this approach.

For Saudi Arabia, a bilateral agreement with the US would be a major victory, marking an end to the era when Biden sought to undermine Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS) after the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. The deal would also consolidate America's dominance in the Middle East for generations and blunt the growing challenge posed by China and Russia.

MBS is eager to bolster the kingdom's defenses and diversify the Saudi economy away from hydrocarbons, as he pursues an ambitious economic policy dubbed Vision 2030. The kingdom has a nascent civilian nuclear program that MBS is keen to develop with US support.

However, the deal faces opposition from some US lawmakers, who are concerned about Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions and its potential to develop nuclear weapons. Democratic Senator Edward J. Markey has called on the Biden administration to ensure that Riyadh commits to forego enrichment and reprocessing of nuclear material.

The Saudi-US pact would make it incumbent on both countries to work together to deter and confront any external aggression, but doesn't formalize it as a treaty alliance. The deal would provide a written commitment of mutual defense, stopping short of a treaty alliance that requires Senate approval.

In summary, the US and Saudi Arabia are finalizing a landmark deal that would strengthen their bilateral trade and defense ties, but only if Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations. The deal faces obstacles, including Israel's acceptance of a pathway to a Palestinian state, and opposition from some US lawmakers. However, if successful, the deal would consolidate America's dominance in the Middle East and provide a significant victory for Saudi Arabia.