Chinese President Xi Jinping's upcoming six-day European tour

 

Chinese President Xi Jinping's upcoming six-day European tour, his first in five years, comes at a time when views on China have dramatically shifted across the continent. While he will still receive a lavish welcome, the climate is very different from his 2019 visit to Italy, where he was given a private tour of Roman landmarks and a dinner serenaded by opera singer Andrea Bocelli.

In recent weeks, the European Union has launched trade probes into China's wind turbines and medical equipment, and raided offices of Chinese security equipment maker Nuctech as part of an investigation into subsidies. Germany and the UK have also arrested or charged individuals for alleged espionage and related crimes linked to China. Additionally, Italy has formally exited China's Belt and Road initiative, a significant blow to China's global ambitions.

Xi's trip, with stops in France, Serbia, and Hungary, is an opportunity to address these concerns and showcase that some European countries still welcome China with open arms. However, major breakthroughs with China's toughest critics will be hard to come by unless Xi is ready to make surprise concessions.

The trip begins with a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron, two of China's toughest critics. Von der Leyen has been driving the EU's efforts to "derisk" its supply chains from China, and Macron has been critical of China's alleged overcapacity and subsidies. Xi will likely press Beijing's message that "derisking" from China is perilous for Europe, but this rhetoric is unlikely to move the needle for Von der Leyen, who wants to find ways to address perceived trade distortions before EU parliamentary elections in June.

Xi may have more success in his one-on-one time with Macron, who has built a reputation as a fairly independent actor in the EU and willing to create space with the US. Xi may want to work on Macron to see if he can get more European distance from North America, as well as tightening his rapport with this important EU player.

The war in Ukraine is also expected to be on the agenda, where Xi may seek to bolster China's attempts to position itself as a peacemaker. However, Beijing has appeared to do little to move the Kremlin toward European visions for peace in Ukraine, despite repeated efforts to push Xi to use his rapport with President Vladimir Putin.

Xi's stops in Serbia and Hungary are likely to be much less contentious, as both countries welcome Chinese investment and don't have a problem with China's deepening ties to Russia. In Belgrade, Xi will coincide with the 25th anniversary of NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy, which killed three and drove Beijing's deep enmity for the alliance.

Xi may also look to highlight Chinese investments in both Belgrade and Budapest in a message to the rest of Europe. Serbia has seen growing trade and investment ties with China, and Hungary has emerged as an important production hub in Europe for Chinese automotive suppliers, including EV makers.

Overall, Xi's trip is an uphill struggle to win goodwill in Europe, where views on China have dramatically shifted. While he may have some success in Serbia and Hungary, his meetings with Von der Leyen and Macron will be much tougher, and major breakthroughs will be hard to come by unless he is ready to make surprise concessions.