Hamas is considering a new proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release, which could potentially avert a large-scale Israeli ground invasion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah. The proposal, put forth by Egypt, calls for the release of 20-33 hostages kidnapped from Israel in exchange for a pause in hostilities in Gaza. This would be followed by a second phase, dubbed the "restoration of sustainable calm," during which the remaining hostages, captive Israeli soldiers, and the bodies of hostages would be exchanged for more Palestinian prisoners.
The proposal is seen as a major step towards ending the war, and Israeli officials have expressed openness to negotiating the "restoration of sustainable calm" as part of a comprehensive deal. However, a failure to agree could deepen Israel's presence in Gaza, with a large-scale ground invasion into Rafah potentially resulting in significant civilian casualties.
The US and other Israeli allies have warned against such an operation, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stating that the US wouldn't support a major military operation in Rafah "in the absence of a plan to ensure that civilians will not be harmed." White House National Security Council communications adviser John Kirby added that Israel has assured the US that it won't launch an invasion of Rafah until the Biden administration can share its concerns.
The proposal is the latest attempt to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas, with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry expressing hope that the parties will accept the proposal. "There is a proposal on the table, up to the two sides to consider and accept, but certainly, the objective is a ceasefire, a permanent ceasefire, and dealing with the humanitarian conditions," Shoukry said.
Israel has agreed to accept fewer hostages in the first phase of the proposal, with the latest framework calling for a one-day pause for each hostage released. The release of 40 hostages for a six-week ceasefire had been the basis of negotiations for months, but Hamas dropped its offer to fewer than 20 people earlier this month.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the proposal as "extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel," adding that "in this moment, the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas." He urged Hamas to make the right decision and accept the proposal.
The situation in Gaza remains dire, with the death toll from Israel's bombardment continuing to climb. Twenty people, including at least one infant and a toddler, died following an Israeli airstrike over Rafah overnight into Monday, according to hospital officials. In Gaza City, seven Palestinians were killed and dozens injured in two separate Israeli airstrikes overnight.
The proposal is seen as a last chance to avert a large-scale military operation in Rafah, with Israeli sources characterizing the latest Egyptian effort to broker a deal as the last chance to stop the offensive. "The only chance to stop Rafah is a deal," an Israeli source familiar with the negotiations said.
Israel has also agreed to the unrestricted movement of Palestinians to northern Gaza, a key demand by Hamas that has held back negotiations in the past. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry expressed hope that the parties will accept the proposal, saying that "we are waiting to have a final decision."
The situation remains tense, with both sides awaiting a response from Hamas, which is expected to meet Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Cairo on Monday. A working-level Israeli delegation is expected to travel to Cairo on Tuesday to continue negotiations. The world watches anxiously, hoping for a peaceful resolution to the conflict and an end to the suffering of the people of Gaza.
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