Poor and wealthy countries will suffer economically because of climate change

 

New research published in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) highlights the significant economic impact of climate change on both wealthy and lower-income nations. The study emphasizes that failing to address climate change could have severe consequences for global economies, including the United States.

The study projects that under a "business as usual" scenario with high global emissions and continued temperature increases, global GDP per capita could decline by 7.2% by 2100. In the United States, this could translate to a real income reduction of 10.5%. Even wealthy nations like Japan, India, and New Zealand could experience GDP losses around 10%.

The research team analyzed data from 174 countries and found that no country would be spared from the economic impacts of climate change. Sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, mining, trade, and retail would all be affected by climate-related disasters like flooding and heat fluctuations.

However, the study also offers hope by highlighting the potential benefits of adhering to the Paris Agreement's goals. If the world manages to limit global warming to below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) over preindustrial temperatures, the projected global GDP loss could be limited to around 1.1%. The United States and other countries could see their GDP shrink by less than 2% under this scenario.

Despite the potential economic benefits of climate action, challenges remain, particularly with regard to political will. The Trump administration has been skeptical of climate action, with President Trump announcing the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement. However, the study underscores the importance of meeting the Paris Agreement goals to avoid economic crises and mitigate the impacts of climate change on global economies.