This statement, while aiming to highlight the overrepresentation of non-religious individuals in the scientific community and their underrepresentation in the prison population, uses outdated, exaggerated, and sometimes conflated statistics for both parts of the claim.
Here is a breakdown of the actual data and the reality behind the statement:
🔬 National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Membership
The claim that the US would lose 93% of the National Academy of Science if all atheists and agnostics left is based on a study, but the figure is significantly lower and is often misstated or misinterpreted.
The Original Study: A study published in 1998 in the journal Nature surveyed NAS members on their belief in God. The results found that:
Atheists: About $72.2\%$ of the NAS members did not believe in God.
Agnostics: About $15.0\%$ of the NAS members were agnostic.
Total Non-believers: Adding these two categories ($72.2\% + 15.0\%$) results in $87.2\%$ who did not believe in God or were agnostic.
Updated Data/Reality: The $87.2\%$ figure is the correct finding from the survey of NAS members' beliefs (not $93\%$), but it is still a small, highly selective group (top scientists). It does not represent the religious makeup of all scientists or the general population. Surveys of the general US population usually show a much higher rate of belief in God.
⛓️ US Prison Population
The claim that the US would lose less than $1\%$ of the prison population is also false and significantly underestimates the presence of non-religious inmates.
The Reality: The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) and various surveys on inmate populations provide data that indicates:
The vast majority of US inmates do identify with a religion, most commonly Christianity.
1 However, the percentage of inmates who report having "no religion" or being atheist/agnostic is typically reported as being between $1\%$ and $4\%$ of the total prison population, sometimes reaching as high as $5-6\%$ in some state reports.
The $1\%$ figure is very low, and estimates in the low single digits are more accurate.
Conclusion: While it is true that non-religious individuals are significantly underrepresented in the prison population compared to their share in the general US population (currently around $25-30\%$ of the US population identifies as "none" or non-religious), the claim that they make up less than $1\%$ of inmates is an underestimation.
📝 Summary of Accuracy
| Claim | Figure in Statement | Actual Approximate Range/Data | Status |
| Non-believers in NAS | $93\%$ | $\sim 87\%$ (from 1998 study) | Exaggerated |
| Non-believers in Prison | $<1\%$ | $\sim 1\%$ to $6\%$ (varies by source/state) | Underestimated |
Final Verdict: The statement is directionally correct (non-religious people are highly represented in the NAS and underrepresented in prisons), but the specific percentages used are factually incorrect and exaggerated or underestimated to maximize the contrast.
Would you like to explore why there might be a disparity in religious belief between the general population and the scientific community?
No comments:
Post a Comment